Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 99912.154531 105293.818823 110670.407144 116441.427683 122456.843420 128538.535556 135148.340331
2025-11-09 90815.754157 99023.749277 107448.363210 116730.922365 126660.835052 136953.872473 148418.905206
2025-11-16 85125.637443 95324.467203 106014.453305 118032.855552 131145.967217 144996.921256 160710.783934
2025-11-23 79872.470340 91482.334446 103868.536879 118030.615155 133738.026164 150588.339728 169993.845303
2025-11-30 76627.842101 89491.175921 103424.982069 119587.416829 137764.325084 157520.006017 180558.964822
2025-12-07 73574.461045 87456.676823 102702.434674 120616.869063 141015.926778 163445.416097 189894.557987
2025-12-14 70286.251545 84943.056821 101247.702194 120638.012653 142972.528904 167793.423525 197361.426609
2025-12-21 67542.564416 82894.922044 100178.204644 120961.651515 145154.546605 172304.111821 204946.651915
2025-12-28 65887.285979 82009.158328 100356.867250 122643.217005 148833.433210 178482.918188 214427.366506
2026-01-04 64137.527161 80914.640519 100207.178294 123866.377496 151921.539674 183945.841870 223072.567070
2026-01-11 62290.321881 79614.662414 99736.718726 124640.787607 154427.590376 188697.209016 230877.645335
2026-01-18 60337.952826 78104.193790 98941.044751 124959.952141 156339.678818 192715.978644 237807.219510
2026-01-25 58578.212963 76782.311387 98338.053301 125490.301520 158503.737847 197056.775373 245175.590060
2026-02-01 56680.208043 75223.501572 97389.858711 125552.197567 160067.774677 200666.594193 251679.500009
2026-02-08 55544.652738 74568.018027 97507.740733 126883.616859 163150.165456 206090.080816 260374.618698
2026-02-15 53818.112830 73106.655244 96575.065757 126870.934889 164551.763842 209464.613524 266594.353404
2026-02-22 52993.523332 72757.499098 96999.109467 128520.451436 167986.917828 215309.106026 275835.029080
2026-03-01 51956.676334 72096.554707 96998.508085 129612.040661 170715.528610 220291.177497 284043.143053
2026-03-08 50483.446514 70822.845989 96179.805719 129634.379399 172081.788930 223585.473858 290181.283107
2026-03-15 49229.045425 69795.250504 95639.235890 129977.649616 173826.913021 227335.751990 296886.343365
2026-03-22 48672.984265 69665.935854 96235.164389 131761.150963 177387.958375 233349.813335 306427.521551
2026-03-29 47935.726704 69269.694533 96464.691491 133058.298904 180326.240770 238595.356155 315038.103715
2026-04-05 47031.431186 68621.178625 96341.415953 133879.482738 182646.149500 243067.607814 322699.483945